Diaspora in crossfire as India-Canada row ‘spirals out of control’

Frosty relations between India and Canada have reached a remarkable new low with accusations of New Delhi’s involvement in the assassination of a Sikh leader outside a temple in British Columbia.
In a statement to parliament, Justin Trudeau said Canada was investigating “credible allegations” the Indian state was behind the 18 June murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar – a prominent religious leader who advocated for the Khalistan movement, a separatist campaign to carve a Sikh nation out of India’s Punjab state.
The two nations had already suspended talks on a free trade agreement amid a row over the Trudeau government’s response to the growing Khalistan movement, which also has supporters in Britain and the United States. Canada says members have a right to free speech as long as they do not incite or espouse violence, while India calls them extremists and had listed Nijjar as a wanted “terrorist”.
Now Trudeau’s statement has blown the disagreement up into a fully fledged diplomatic row, with Ottawa and New Delhi both expelling senior diplomats in tit-for-tat moves and allies of both countries responding with concern.
The accusation – which the Narendra Modi government has strongly denied – comes at a critical juncture for India’s global image, and so soon after it claimed success in forging an international consensus at a divided G20 summit in Delhi.
Trudeau’s statement came on the very same day that Modi addressed his own parliament to declare that India had “secured its place as a ‘friend of the world’” with its hosting of the G20.
“The relations between India and Canada have perhaps reached a point of no return under Trudeau’s leadership,” Harsh V Pant, professor of international relations at King College London, tells The Independent.
“This ups the ante significantly and there is a serious divide between the two nations on this issue and it’s very unlikely that it is going to be bridged any time soon,” Pant says.
At a G20 with an onus on the importance of optics, much was made of Modi’s relatively cold reception for Trudeau; unlike many of his Western allies, the Canadian prime minister was not given a slot for bilateral talks with his Indian counterpart.
Instead, the two leaders discussed the issue of Nijjar’s death in person on the sidelines of group talks, and India raised its objections to the way Trudeau’s government was handling what it calls “anti-India activities” in Canada.
Canada has now postponed a trade mission to India that was scheduled for early October, with the spokesperson for Canadian trade minister Mary Ng giving no explanation for why the trip was called off.
Discussions of a trade pact between India and Canada were expected to conclude by the end of this year but are also in limbo after Indian commerce and trade minister Piyush Goyal said the talks were paused due to “certain issues which are of serious concern.”
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was expected to give a two-way trade boost to the tune of $6.5bn, yielding a GDP gain of $3.8bn to $5.9bn for Canada by 2035.
Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the Rand Corporation, tells The Independent that any harm to India’s reputation from this episode will depend on what facts Canada presents from its investigations.
“Regardless, this is perhaps the biggest reputational test yet for Modi and his BJP government because India is more externally-facing today than at any time in its history. This is not simply a domestic challenge,” he says.
“Having just come off of a successful G20 hosting, this revelation could serve as the counter narrative to India’s peaceful and responsible image.”
Jonah Kaplan, London-based Asia analyst at geopolitical and security intelligence firm Dragonfly, says the fact Trudeau has decided to raise the issue first privately and now publicly suggests he “was unable to attain assurances that India will not carry out such activity on Canadian soil” during his G20 talks with Modi.
“Trudeau’s decision to go public with the allegations suggests that he has credible intelligence that New Delhi was responsible for the incident, although we have not been able to corroborate this,” he said.
Western allies such as the Britain, France, Australia and the United States, which count on strong relations with both countries, will now face pressure from Canada to back its claim; Trudeau has reportedly already briefed counterparts including Rishi Sunak, Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron.
Grossman says it leaves the Biden administration in a no-win situation with a Nato ally and close neighbour on one side and India, which Washington has increasingly courted in recent year, on the other.
“Canada’s bombshell accusation today against India could be the most significant test of the strength of the US-India partnership since early 2000s. That said, the US will pull out all the stops to keep India close by its side to help counter China, which could mean staying out of this mess,” he says.
If Canada and India continue down this path it could also have implications for the former’s large diaspora of an estimated 1.4 to 1.8 million Indian-origin people, including the largest Sikh population in the world outside of India’s Punjab state.
Many Indians seeking to emigrate to the West take advantage of Canada’s relatively favourable visa system, and Canada welcomes them as valuable workers and contributors to its economy.
While the Trudeau government is unlikely to start restricting visas for Indians as a result of this row, it could have an impact on diaspora already in Canada, according to experts.
“There’s reason to fear the implications for the Sikh diaspora in Canada, which has long been perceived as a safe and stable space for it to live,” Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington DC-based Wilson Centre, tells The Independent.
“It could get caught up in a diplomatic row that appears to be spiralling out of control.
“The concerns are less about their treatment in Canada, where the government will aim to take measures to keep them safe, and more about efforts to get visas to India. So the people to people impacts could be troubling, if Canada-India relations continue to deteriorate.”
Kaplan says Sikh activists are likely to call for protests outside Indian consulates in Canada in the coming days given “they have frequently protested there over similar issues in recent months”.
“That said, we do not anticipate an elevated risk to the safety of the Indian community in Canada,” he says. “And we have not seen any indication that there will be violent clashes between Sikhs and Hindus in Canada.”